U.S. automotive aftermarket surges with 8.6% growth in 2023

The U.S. automotive aftermarket industry has outperformed expectations, achieving an impressive 8.6% growth in 2023, according to the 2024 Joint Forecast Model by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, prepared by S&P Global. This comprehensive report offers a detailed analysis of the industry’s current state and future trends, projecting continued growth through 2027.

The U.S. automotive aftermarket industry has outperformed expectations, achieving an impressive 8.6% growth in 2023, according to the 2024 Joint Forecast Model by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, prepared by S&P Global. This comprehensive report offers a detailed analysis of the industry’s current state and future trends, projecting continued growth through 2027.

Despite facing challenges such as persistent inflation, the aftermarket sector demonstrated resilience, with total sales reaching $391 billion in 2023. This growth was driven by strong performance across dealers’ service centers, auto parts stores and general auto repair sectors, all surpassing initial estimates, the organizations found.

The report highlights key market trends influencing this growth. Notably, rising wages and a robust labor market are boosting consumer spending, even amid inflationary pressures. Additionally, the industry’s capacity to charge higher prices for services and parts has been crucial in maintaining growth. Although consumer sentiment remains low, spending has remained strong, reflecting resilience in the face of economic uncertainty.

“MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and the Auto Care Association are committed to providing industry stakeholders with valuable insights and forecasts to navigate a dynamic, shifting—and growing—automotive aftermarket,” said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers.

“Our Joint Channel Forecast’s projections for long-term growth, driven by structural market tailwinds and the strength of the independent aftermarket, underscore the enduring value of repair market competition and consumer choice. Despite inflationary pressures, vehicle owners are investing more in their cars, with an aging vehicle fleet and significant growth in both service and retail sectors supporting our industry’s trajectory. The report’s analysis on how these factors are shaping our market provide essential clarity for our members as they strategize for the future.”

Vehicle sales and fleet growth also contributed positively, with new vehicle sales stabilizing and e-commerce purchases of DIY parts increasing, mirroring changing consumer preferences towards convenience.

“The data reveals promising growth prospects for our industry, showcasing resilience in the face of challenges,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “As we navigate the evolving market dynamics, industry stakeholders can expect a wealth of opportunities to emerge, driven by consumer demand, the aging vehicle population and technological advancements. This forecast equips stakeholders with actionable insights to seize these opportunities and drive continued success in the automotive aftermarket.”

Looking ahead, the Joint Forecast Model predicts a 5.9% growth in the U.S. automotive aftermarket for 2024, with an average growth rate of 4.5% annually from 2025 to 2027. By then, the aftermarket is expected to expand to $472 billion, as inflationary impacts diminish.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is accessible to members of the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, with Auto Care members finding it in the 2025 Auto Care Factbook at and MEMA members at mema.org/JCF.


For the latest news and information on the global automotive aftermarket industry, visit https://aftermarketintel.com. Do you have news? Contact Aftermarket Intel Editor Mark Phillips at mark@lpnewmedia.com. He’s on LinkedIn here.

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