The automotive aftermarket is a beast: Industry outperforms expectations, grows 9.7% in 2022

MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and the Auto Care Association, alongside S&P Global, have unveiled the 2023 Joint Channel Forecast Model report.

MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and the Auto Care Association, alongside S&P Global, have unveiled the 2023 Joint Channel Forecast Model report.

In short, the automotive aftermarket industry is a beast.

This annual report offers crucial insights and tactical advice to stakeholders in the automotive aftermarket industry. Despite recent economic pressures and escalating costs burdening many U.S. citizens, the report indicates the industry’s resilience and adaptability, particularly across service and retail sectors. It highlights the industry’s continuous adjustments to meet changing demand in this volatile market.

The automotive aftermarket, according to the report, exceeded projections in 2022 by registering a 9.7% growth, as compared to the anticipated 8.5%. Although inflation remains high, the report forecasts an additional 8.1% growth in 2023.

Subsequently, the growth rate is expected to stabilize but remain significant, making the industry an enticing prospect for investment.

“The automotive aftermarket continues to prove that it can succeed on two fronts – the longstanding production and manufacturing that gives the aftermarket its strong foundation and the innovation and entrepreneurship that are required with the bourgeoning technology changes and opportunities in transportation,” said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “This year’s Joint Channel Forecast provides an impressive outlook for the aftermarket and underscores the value of investment in this industry.”

“Consistency, reliability and adaptability — that’s what the motoring public have come to expect from the auto care industry over the years, but especially in more recent times with many Americans facing the very real rise in their cost of living,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “The latest Joint Channel Forecast Model demonstrates this reality with the latest market figures surpassing expectations yet again.”

The recently released report covers a range of key topics such as:
•The market size, estimated in billions of dollars until 2026, including yearly percentage changes;
•The revenue and market share distribution across the retail, service, and dealer channels;
•Significant economic forecasts until 2026, including GDP, consumer price index, and the CPI for Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Repair;
•Future sales projections for motor vehicles up to 2026; and
•Detailed analysis of the factors driving aftermarket growth.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report aims to equip businesses with in-depth knowledge about growth-driving factors in the auto care industry. This will aid them in making informed decisions, spotting growth opportunities, and fine-tuning their market strategies.

The report underscores the auto care industry’s unwavering adaptability and dependability across retail and service sectors, catering to a rapidly changing market demand. As supply chain issues slowly subside, replenishing new vehicle stocks, the report notes the rising vehicle parc age and growing costs of both new and used vehicles. This prompts owners to extend their vehicle usage, which, along with vehicle miles returning to pre-COVID levels, fuels the automotive aftermarket industry.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit. 

Auto Care members can access the Joint Channel Forecast report in the 2024 Auto Care Factbook at MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers can access the report at

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