By Camille Sheehan, of the Auto Care Association
The Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association together commissioned the 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast to provide the auto care industry with the insights needed to navigate the rapidly evolving industry.
As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases with vehicle maker commitments, emerging policy, and developing technology, the long-term impact of this segment’s growth is profound. As EV sales continue to grow, and as car parc growth slows, we expect penetration to increase rapidly after 2030, growing to 36% of the car parc by 2045 under a base case analysis. This newly released report provides the latest data, trends and analysis on how these developments are expected to impact the automotive aftermarket; the data and projections in this report can be applied to all companies across the supply chain to inform long-term strategy and identify future growth opportunities.
The 30-page 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast report includes:
- A complete projection of the growth of new EV sales and vehicles in operation (VIO) through the year 2045 under three scenarios: base, low and high EV adoption
- Projections on total battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV) model count by vehicle class, showing how the popular SUV style is driving EV design as vehicle manufacturers provide more options
- How EVs affect the growth of aftermarket parts sales through the year 2045
- How shops can offset projected changes due to EVs with new opportunities created by EVs
- An overview of the Chinese market – with its pronounced policies and sales rates of EVs at levels four times that of the United States, this developing market presents an ideal look into the future of how the global EV market is likely to evolve.
By 2045, 79% of all new vehicle sales are expected to be BEVs or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and are projected to account for 36% of vehicles in operation (VIO). The 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast report also contains:
- Charts and analysis detailing factors impacting EV adoption
- Key growth contributors to the aftermarket
- Trajectory of EV model availability in North America
- Forecasted performance of EV models relative to other segments
- Projected share of EVs in car parc for 2021-2045
- Projected market growth through 2045; new growth opportunities for categories of service and more.
Research and analysis in the 2021 Joint Electrification Forecast report was contributed by Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC; IHS Markit; IMR Inc.; Schwartz Advisors; and YCP Solidiance.
“We are looking at evolution, not revolution, said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, AASA. “While EV replacement parts sales will double in size between now and 2025, and again between 2025 and 2030, EVs still have a long road before they account for a large percentage of aftermarket sales.”
“Given we already have a fleet of over 280 million vehicles, our industry will be driven by the internal combustion engine for the next couple of decades,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association.
AASA and Auto Care Association and members receive complimentary access to these reports as a membership benefit. These reports may be purchased by non-members for $1,500 each and accessed instantly on the AASA website at aftermarketsuppliers.org/resource or on the Auto Care Digital Hub at digital.autocare.org.
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